Nigeria’s telecoms sector just recorded one of its strongest years of growth in recent memory, and MTN is on the verge of a milestone that would have seemed impossible just a few years ago. Nigeria’s telephone usage rose by 10 percent in one year, driven by the dominance of the 4G network, with teledensity growing from 79.22 percent, representing 171.7 million active subscriptions, to 87.5 percent, representing 189.6 million active subscriptions.
At the centre of that growth sits MTN Nigeria, which is now knocking on the door of 100 million active subscribers.
MTN’s subscriber database hit 96.9 million in May 2026, accounting for 51.19 percent of the country’s mobile market, underscoring its dominant position in the industry.
The company’s H1 2026 financial results, released this week, put that number even higher at 92.2 million active subscribers as of June 30, though the NCC’s May figure of 96.9 million reflects a different counting methodology that includes all active SIM connections rather than just paying subscribers. Either way, the direction is the same: MTN is closing in on 100 million and pulling away from the competition.
Airtel Nigeria closed May with 65.4 million active subscriptions, accounting for 34.55 percent of market share. Globacom maintained its third position with 23.4 million active subscriptions, representing 12.39 percent of the market.
As of May 2026, 4G networks have 54.30 percent penetration, meaning approximately 102.9 million telephone users are currently on the technology. While 2G users stand at 68.4 million, 3G, which is fading away across countries, currently has 9.66 million subscribers. 5G, which is in its fourth year in Nigeria, has 4.49 percent penetration, enjoyed by approximately 8.47 million users.
The 4G coverage numbers behind these figures are striking. MTN has between 80 and 95 percent 4G population coverage across all states, with over 11,500 sites nationwide, while 99 percent of Airtel’s sites are 4G-enabled across approximately 16,700 locations.
This level of 4G infrastructure is what is enabling the growth in teledensity. When more of a country is covered by fast, reliable 4G signal, more people find it worthwhile to maintain an active connection.
While three of Nigeria’s four major operators are growing, one is not keeping pace. T2, formerly 9mobile, remained at a distant fourth position with 3.5 million subscriptions as of May. NCC data revealed that T2 has remained below the three-million subscription threshold since September 2025.
The operator, which once had over 22 million subscribers, has continued to struggle to attract more customers despite an infrastructure-sharing deal signed with MTN in July last year.
T2 rebranded from 9mobile roughly a year ago in a move designed to signal a fresh start. So far, that fresh start has not translated into subscriber recovery. The gap between T2 and Globacom in third place is now enormous, with Globacom holding more than six times as many active subscriptions.
One important context for all these numbers is Nigeria’s well-established multi-SIM culture. Due to Nigeria’s multi-SIM nature, there are subscribers who use the services of at least two or three operators at once to keep their telephone service afloat.
This means the 189.6 million active subscription figure does not represent 189.6 million unique individual users. Many of those connections belong to the same person, carrying an MTN SIM for data, an Airtel SIM for calls, and perhaps a Glo SIM for specific promotions. The actual number of individuals with phone access is lower than the headline subscriber count suggests, though still significantly higher than it was a year ago.
The growth numbers are not happening by accident. The sector is being backed by serious capital expenditure commitments. ALTON Chairman Gbenga Adebayo said that in 2025, the industry invested approximately N2.13 trillion in capital expenditure, while an additional N1.86 trillion is planned for 2026. The funds will expand fibre networks, modernise technology, enhance resilience, and improve service quality nationwide.
Adebayo credited the Federal Government’s 2025 tariff adjustment policy for restoring industry sustainability and enabling renewed reinvestment. The 50 percent tariff increase that sparked public outrage when it was announced appears to be delivering exactly the investment recycling that operators and the NCC argued it would.
NCC Executive Vice Chairman Dr Aminu Maida disclosed that operators carried out just over 3,000 site upgrades for coverage and capacity in 2025, but with a commitment to 12,000 upgrades in 2026, they are now ramping up infrastructure investments and network expansion. The upgrades include additional spectrum deployment at 4G sites, as well as converting older 2G and 3G sites to 4G and 5G infrastructure.
The jump from 171.7 million to 189.6 million active subscriptions in one year is not just a number to put in a press release. The dominance of 4G networks has reshaped consumer behaviour, enabling millions of Nigerians to access high-speed internet for education, business, entertainment, and social interaction.
For context, Nigeria’s internet subscriber base now sits at over 157 million, and broadband penetration has crossed 55 percent. These are people actively using data connections, not just voice calls, which means the economic activity flowing through Nigeria’s mobile networks is growing alongside the subscriber count.
MTN’s approach toward 100 million subscribers is more than a company milestone. It marks a structural shift in Nigeria’s telecoms landscape toward a market where a single operator commands half of all connections in a country of over 200 million people. Whether that level of concentration becomes a regulatory concern going forward is a question the NCC will likely have to address as MTN crosses that threshold.
For now, the numbers tell a simple story: Nigeria’s mobile market is growing faster than it has in years, 4G is driving most of that growth, and the investment commitments suggest the expansion is far from over.
